A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
